Friday, March 13th, 2009
Trust is the foundation of all trade and business. Without trust, no deal can get done, no venture can be launched, no discussion can even begin. Trust has been shaken in individual businesses in recent years, but recently exposed financial scams have shaken confidence not just in one or a collection of companies but almost in the very value of money itself. Agencies gave high ratings to the long-term stability and value of CDO (collateralized debt obligations), which in the sober light of day are seen to have been illusions disguised by algorithms. If we can’t trust banks then maybe we can’t trust fabs?
Intel claims to have invested billions of dollars into R&D for exotic new materials for it’s chips, including what can be incomprehensible acryonyms like HKMG and SiGe and CDO. How can we trust another CDO? Well, this CDO is “carbon-doped oxide” which is completely trustworthy because it’s been used for over a decade in mainstream chips (CDO at Intel is called “SiCOH” at IBM and “Black Diamond” by Applied Materials and “Aurora” by ASM and “Coral” by Novellus; it’s all essentially the same functional thin-film glass used to insulate the metal wires on chips). The world’s fab technology really works. I use it to write these words, and you use it to read these words.
Fab technology, whether semiconductor, flat-panel, photovoltaic, or MEMS, is about making incredibly useful things for amazingly low costs. The world needs these things. Another billion people need a cell phone, and it still needs a lot of chips. Microcontrollers and sensors and renewable energy all enrich people’s lives across the world in myriad ways, and demand will not stop. However, we are part of the global economy now, and so we too must slow when everyone else slows.
The trust has never left fabs. Fab folks want to do things, we like to make things happen, it’s just what we do. When the global economy turns around, we’ll be ready to ship products. We still know who to call at midnight to get a needed part. We still trust our order will show up on time and to spec. Our CDO is in no way similar to their CDO, trust hundreds of dedicated technologists who gather every year for the International Interconnect Technology Conference (June 1-3, in Sapporo for the first time). A reminder as to why TSMC is not an accurate bellwether during a downturn will be covered in the Newsletter. –E.K.