Tuesday, April 7th, 2009
Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) collects and reports market size information for key sectors of the semiconductor ecosystem. It recently issued figures for the materials market, which in 2008 totaled $42.7 billion, essentially flat with the prior year. According to SEMI, rapidly slowing economic conditions in the fourth quarter squelched prospects for year-over-year growth across the materials market.
(source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group)
At Semicon China 2009, SEMI president Stan Meyers presented a monthly wafer area shipment index that paints a picture of the dramatic shift in shipments in the final quarter of 2008 (see figure). As of January 2009, the index shows shipments have dropped from record levels in the middle of 2008 to average monthly levels not seen since 2002. (The SMG shipment numbers cover a broad range of products inclusive of polished silicon wafers, including virgin test wafers, epitaxial silicon wafers, and non-polished silicon wafers.)
Other materials followed a similar pattern. “Feedback we have received showed that sales and volumes started to crash in November, and December was disastrous,” recounted Mark Thirsk of the electronic materials research firm Linx Consulting. “ We have heard instances of zero monthly shipments in some supply chains.” From BetaSights’ point of view, these figures clearly indicate a correction and drawing down of inventories as opposed to a permanent shift in demand for materials. Thirsk agreed, “One thing is certain: inventories are now at rock bottom and below. Customer orders for materials are for days, not weeks, of supply.”
According to Dan Tracy, senior director of the SEMI Industry Research and Statistics group, wafer area shipment figures for February (the most recently available month) look about the same as January. There is good news, however. Unit shipments of leadframes, which in the second half of 2008 had tracked the dramatic decline of wafer shipments, showed an up tick in the February data. This is, we hope, the anticipated sign that we’ve reached the bottom of the current cycle. More materials numbers and analysis by Linx, Semico, and TechCet are in this week’s BetaSights Newsletter. –E.S.